IGA Capital Weekly Market Update

April 7, 2025

Source: Bloomberg, Walker & Dunlop, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Macroeconomic Overview

Global markets began Q2 2025 with a cautiously optimistic tone. While inflation data is anticipated later this week, current market pricing reflects moderate disinflation, a weakening dollar, and easing long-term treasury yields—setting the stage for a recalibration of forward risk appetite in both public and private credit markets.

Bond Markets & Treasury Forecasts

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields continue to compress. As of this week:

10Y Yield: 4.05% (↓ 15bps from last week)
5Y Yield: 3.72% (↓ 21bps)
Swap spreads also tightened across the curve.

Bloomberg's latest analyst consensus shows 10-year Treasury yields trending lower into 2026, reflecting softening inflation expectations and rate cut assumptions by the Fed.

Source: Bloomberg / Walker & Dunlop Forecast Survey

Agency Loan Pricing – Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

Despite rate volatility, agency spreads remain firm:

Fannie Mae DUS (Fixed Rate, Tier 2 Pricing):

Term	Gross Rate
5-Year	5.42%
7-Year	5.41%
10-Year	5.47%
15-Year	5.75%

Freddie Mac pricing remains comparable, with 10-year loans quoting between 5.35% and 5.55% across underwriting tiers.

Equity Markets & REIT Performance

REIT valuations continue to face downward pressure. Equity Residential (EQR) and AvalonBay (AVB) both hovered near 52-week lows, while Residential Mortgage REITs like AGNC and TWO now yield upwards of 16%, reflecting heightened credit spread risk in mortgage portfolios.

REIT	Price	Dividend Yield
AGNC	$8.60	16.75%
NLY	$18.13	14.62%
CIM	$11.01	13.26%

Multifamily REITs remain relatively more stable, averaging 3.7% – 4.5% dividend yields.

FX & Commodities

Gold: $3,009/oz (↓3.2% WoW)
Oil (WTI): $60.09 (↓13.9% WoW)
EUR/USD: 1.09 (↑1.2%)
USD/JPY: 146.82 (↓1.8%)

The U.S. dollar weakened moderately, supporting EM capital inflows and alternative asset pricing.

Upcoming Key Data Releases

Date	Event
April 8	NFIB Small Business Optimism
April 10	CPI / Core CPI
April 11	PPI / University of Michigan Sentiment

IGA Capital Perspective

With yields trending downward and macro data cooling, borrowers and sponsors should begin preparing to re-enter markets before spreads tighten further. Our current pipeline includes: