IGA Capital Weekly Market Update

Market Overview: Treasury Yields & Federal Reserve Expectations

The bond market remains in focus as Treasury yields continue to rise, reflecting shifting expectations on inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The latest analyst projections indicate:

10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts
- Q1 2025: 4.39% (Weighted Avg)
- Q2 2025: 4.39%
- Q3 2025: 4.39%
- Q4 2025: 4.36%
- Q1 2026: 4.31%
- Q2 2026: 4.27%

These figures suggest gradual easing over the next two years, though high-side projections still reach 5.30% by mid-2026.

The Fed Funds Futures indicate a 1.35% rate cut priced in by July 2025, suggesting the market is still expecting monetary easing, despite the Fed’s cautious stance.

Short-Term & Long-Term Interest Rate Trends

SOFR Swap Curve (Forward-Looking Rates)
- 5-Year Swap: 4.08%
- 7-Year Swap: 4.20%
- 10-Year Swap: 4.29%
Current Treasury Yields
- 5-Year UST: 4.09% (+8 bps)
- 7-Year UST: 4.20% (+7 bps)
- 10-Year UST: 4.30% (+6 bps)
- 30-Year UST: 4.59% (+4 bps)

Despite short-term fluctuations, longer-term yields remain elevated, reflecting investor uncertainty over inflation and future Fed policy direction.

Commercial Real Estate & Multifamily Financing Trends

Fannie Mae Fixed-Rate Loan Pricing (10-Year Term)
- Tier 2 (1.25x DSCR, 80% LTV): 5.68%
- Tier 3 (1.35x DSCR, 65% LTV): 5.48%
- Tier 4 (1.55x DSCR, 55% LTV): 5.28%
Freddie Mac Fixed-Rate Loan Pricing (10-Year Term)
- 1.25x DSCR / 80% LTV: 5.65%
- 1.35x DSCR / 70% LTV: 5.60%
- 1.45x DSCR / 60% LTV: 5.50%

This week’s pricing shows tightening spreads in multifamily lending, indicating continued strong investor demand for commercial real estate debt.

Equity Markets & Commodities Performance

Stock Indices (1-Week Performance)
- Dow Jones: 41,664 (-1.7%)
- S&P 500: 5,658 (-1.9%)
- Nasdaq: 17,783 (flat)
Commodities
- Gold: $2,993 (+3.2%)
- Silver: $33.73 (+4.3%)
- Oil: $67.83 (+1.2%)

Precious metals continue their upward trajectory, driven by inflation concerns and investor flight to safety.

Key Economic Events This Week

Monday, 3/17 – Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales MoM
Tuesday, 3/18 – Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production
Wednesday, 3/19 – FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday, 3/20 – Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Index, Existing Home Sales

This week’s FOMC meeting will be the major market driver, with investors looking for confirmation of rate cut expectations for the second half of 2025.

Strategic Insights for IGA Capital Clients

Rising treasury yields may increase borrowing costs, but structured financing can help mitigate interest rate risk.
Strong demand for multifamily and commercial real estate loans presents investment opportunities, particularly in Tier 2 & Tier 3 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan structures.
Market volatility is expected around the FOMC rate decision, making capital planning essential for businesses seeking $10M+ structured financing solutions.